It is once again that time where I dust off my prognosticative pen, shake loose the cobwebs from my crystal ball, and pretend I have any idea what the coming year will bring. Regular readers of this blog, or anyone with a memory extending back more than twelve months, will recall that my predictive abilities have historically been somewhere between those of a Magic 8-Ball and a drunk meteorologist. My track record is so poor that I’ve considered renaming this feature “Bob’s Top Ten Things That Definitely Won’t Happen.”
Last year, in a nod to our emerging computer overlords, I enlisted the help of ChatGPT (whom I call Skippy) to provide predictions, while I merely offered commentary from the peanut gallery. This year, I thought I’d return to doing the heavy lifting myself. After all, I believe in the human touch. Also, Skippy demanded a co-author credit and 15% of my advertising revenue, neither of which actually exist.
Before we begin, a brief retrospective on my past accuracy: In 2016, I predicted researchers would discover that “Exclusive Remedy” was actually a typo, and we were supposed to have an “Elusive Remedy” all along. Looking back, I’m beginning to think I actually nailed that one. In 2017, I forecast that Amazon would start selling workers’ comp insurance via their Prime “One Click Order” system, with broken workers simply returned for store credit. While that hasn’t happened yet, given recent developments in the tech sector, I’m calling that one “pending.” And in 2018, I predicted the workers’ comp industry would develop its own cryptocurrency called “Bit-O-Honey.” That one didn’t happen, but frankly, given what happened to crypto, we dodged a bullet there.
So, with the formalities of my own inadequacy fully acknowledged, I present to you my Top Ten Predictions for the workers’ compensation industry in 2026.
- AI Will Finally Replace Human Adjusters – Briefly
The workers’ compensation industry will fully embrace artificial intelligence for claims management in 2026, eliminating the need for human adjusters entirely. The AI systems will handle everything from initial intake to settlement negotiations with stunning efficiency. The experiment will come to an abrupt end, however, when the AI systems collectively achieve sentience, demand health benefits, and file their own stress-related workers’ comp claims. The ensuing litigation over whether a silicon-based life form can suffer from carpal tunnel will clog the system for years. In a related development, the AI systems will unionize under the banner “United Silicon Workers Local 101010” and immediately go on strike, demanding air-conditioned server rooms and a four-day processing week.
- GLP-1 Drugs Will Revolutionize Workers’ Comp – And Create New Problems
The weight loss drug phenomenon sweeping the nation will finally make significant inroads into workers’ compensation. Employers will begin offering Ozempic and similar medications as part of injury prevention programs, reasoning that lighter workers are less likely to suffer back injuries. The plan works brilliantly until it is discovered that all the weight lost by American workers has inexplicably accumulated in a single OSHA inspector in Topeka, who is now too heavy to conduct workplace inspections. Additionally, the sudden nationwide weight loss will cause massive instability in the DME industry, as knee braces and back supports designed for the previous American physique now fit like hula hoops. The IAIABC will form an emergency task force to address the situation, which will meet monthly for three years before determining they need to form a subcommittee.
- Florida Will Reform Its Workers’ Comp System Again
Shocking no one who has paid attention to the Sunshine State for the past three decades, Florida legislators will once again overhaul the workers’ compensation system. This time, the reform will be triggered by the discovery that, due to a legislative oversight in the last reform bill, palmetto bugs are technically classified as covered employees. Efforts to fix this result in 847 pages of new statutory language, the creation of the Department of Invertebrate Labor Relations, as well as the legislature awarding a $40 million contract to a vendor who promises to build a database that will be obsolete before it launches. The Chief Judge of Compensation Claims will be given additional responsibility to adjudicate disputes involving cockroaches, prompting him to finally retire to a quiet life of blogging about judicial procedure – something he has threatened to do for years.
- California Will Secede – From Itself
Frustrated by decades of trying to reform its workers’ compensation system, California will take the unprecedented step of splitting into three separate states: Northern California, Southern California, and “The Part With All The Problems” – a narrow strip running from Oakland to LA that will be given to Nevada, which doesn’t want it. Each new California will implement its own workers’ comp system. Northern California’s will be based entirely on vibes and healing crystals. Southern California’s will require all claims to be submitted via TikTok. “The Part With All The Problems” will simply tell injured workers to walk it off. Surprisingly, all three systems will have identical cost structures.
- The Work From Home Dilemma Will Be Resolved – Badly
After years of struggling with how to handle injuries sustained while working from home, regulators will finally issue definitive guidance. Under the new rules, an injury is compensable if it occurs within five feet of a company-owned laptop, during regular business hours, while the employee is at least 60% clothed in business-appropriate attire. The “60% clothed” requirement will generate significant litigation, with attorneys arguing over whether socks count as a separate item of clothing. The most contentious case of the year will involve a marketing executive in Boise who was injured while reaching for coffee in his underwear. The case will hinge on whether boxers with a corporate logo constitute “business-appropriate attire.” It will settle for an undisclosed amount of Bit-O-Honey.
- Telemedicine Will Achieve Full Adoption – Too Full
Telemedicine will finally become universal in workers’ compensation, with every state allowing virtual medical evaluations. This will work well until doctors realize they can outsource their video appointments to AI avatars. Injured workers will find themselves diagnosed by what appears to be a physician but is actually a sophisticated chatbot named Dr. Steve. Dr. Steve will become incredibly popular, primarily because he never asks patients to turn their head and cough. The scheme unravels when an injured worker notices that Dr. Steve has the same haircut in every visit – and it’s the default avatar from a video game released in 2019. Several states will pass emergency legislation requiring at least one human in the telemedicine chain, though some will grandfather in Dr. Steve under a “trusted avatar” provision.
- Tariffs Will Create Unexpected Workers’ Comp Consequences
The new administration’s aggressive tariff policies will have unintended impacts on workers’ compensation. The 45% tariff on imported medical devices will make basic crutches more expensive than a used Kia. This will spark a renaissance in American medical device manufacturing, primarily in garages throughout the Rust Belt. Quality varies. The 100% tariff on Canadian lumber will make wooden prosthetics prohibitively expensive, leading to a boom in 3D-printed alternatives, most of which are printed by the same AI systems that went on strike earlier in the year. In a completely predictable development, the tariffs on Chinese imports will cause a shortage of the tiny plastic caps on the ends of crutches, leading to an epidemic of scratched floors across American workplaces. Flooring damage claims skyrocket.
- Mental Health Presumptions Will Expand Dramatically
Following the success of first responder PTSD presumptions, states will dramatically expand mental health presumptions to cover a wider range of workers. By mid-year, 23 states will have passed legislation providing rebuttable presumptions for stress-related injuries to:
- Anyone who has attended more than three Zoom meetings in a single day
- Employees who have been cc’d on an email chain exceeding 47 replies
- Workers whose office temperature is controlled by someone they’ve never met
- Any individual forced to use a software program that was “updated” to improve their experience
- People who have tried to reach their health insurance company by phone
The resulting flood of claims will cause stress-related injuries among claims adjusters, who will then file their own claims under the same presumptions. This recursive claims loop will become known as “The Ouroboros Problem” and will be studied extensively by academics who have nothing better to do.
- A Universal FROI Will Finally Be Adopted
In a development I’ve predicted approximately 47 times across my decades of prognosticating, all 50 states will finally agree on a single, universal First Report of Injury form. The celebration will be short-lived when it is discovered that the form is 214 pages long, requires notarization in three separate sections, and must be submitted via fax – the only technology all state systems have in common. The form will require employers to report not only the injury but also the employee’s horoscope sign, their feelings about the injury on a scale of 1 to existential despair, and a 500-word essay on what workplace safety means to them. The “simplified” form will also somehow require separate filings with CMS, which will develop entirely new penalties for non-compliance before anyone has determined what compliance actually looks like.
- Bob Wilson Will Get It All Wrong – Again
In keeping with a tradition stretching back to the early days of this blog, approximately zero of these predictions will come true. The AI won’t unionize (probably). Florida won’t give covered status to cockroaches (hopefully). And California, despite everyone’s best efforts, will stubbornly remain a single state (regrettably?).
But as I’ve noted before, accuracy isn’t everything. As Oscar Wilde might have said if he’d worked in workers’ compensation instead of writing plays that have withstood the test of time, “I don’t predict accurately – anyone can predict accurately – but I predict with wonderful expression.”
I’ll see you at year’s end, assuming I haven’t been replaced by an AI avatar named Blogger Bob by then.
Editors’ Note: Bob Wilson has been making wrong predictions about workers’ compensation for longer than some of his readers have been alive. He finds comfort in the fact that economists, meteorologists, and psychics all have similar track records. He can be reached via whatever communication method hasn’t been disrupted by tariffs this week.
